Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -225 CREI +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -6.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -7.6 (-11.6) | 136.3 (+11.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -7.6 (-11.6) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -7.4 (-11.4) | 136.1 (+11.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -7.4 (-11.4) | 137.1 (+10.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2023 | VILL 68 – 66 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#33) | 11.5 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#12) | 1.60 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.51 (#12) | 2.32 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#15) | 0.581 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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