Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | CREI -455 VILL +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -12.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -10.4 (-12.4) | 141.7 (-7.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -9.7 (-11.7) | 141.9 (-7.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -9.3 (-11.3) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -10.3 (-12.3) | 142.8 (-8.8) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#8) | 10.0 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#44) | 1.21 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#50) | 2.39 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#36) | 0.586 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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