Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BC +210 FSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -8.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -7.5 (+8.5) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -6.3 (+7.3) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -6.5 (+7.5) | 147.8 (+5.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -7.9 (+8.9) | 148.3 (+4.7) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FSU 80 – 72 BC |
| Feb 21, 2024 | FSU 84 – 76 BC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FSU 63 – 62 BC |
| Feb 18, 2023 | BC 75 – 69 FSU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BC 71 – 55 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#222) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#203) | 0.98 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#215) | 1.24 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#237) | 0.543 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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