Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -154 BC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -2.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -0.6 (-6.6) | 145.9 (-1.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.9 (-6.9) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -1.3 (-7.3) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.9 (-6.9) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FSU 80 – 72 BC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BC 77 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | FSU 84 – 76 BC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FSU 63 – 62 BC |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BC 71 – 55 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#215) | -1.7 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#220) | 0.23 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#202) | 0.39 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#207) | 0.500 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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