Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -800 BC +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -8.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -9.1 (-1.1) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -9.7 (-1.7) | 144.2 (+7.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -9.4 (-1.4) | 139.6 (+12.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -9.1 (-1.1) | 140.4 (+11.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | BC 77 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | FSU 84 – 76 BC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FSU 63 – 62 BC |
| Feb 18, 2023 | BC 75 – 69 FSU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BC 71 – 55 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#82) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#82) | -0.40 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#85) | -0.20 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#95) | 0.481 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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