Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BC -188 FSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | BC -2.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -2.9 (-3.9) | 150.6 (-25.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -2.5 (-3.5) | 148.5 (-23.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -3.3 (-4.3) | 146.4 (-21.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BC -3.0 (-4.0) | 146.9 (-21.9) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FSU 80 – 72 BC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BC 77 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | FSU 84 – 76 BC |
| Feb 18, 2023 | BC 75 – 69 FSU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BC 71 – 55 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#88) | 7.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#80) | 1.22 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#84) | 1.61 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#88) | 0.560 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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