Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -200 BC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -3.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.1 (+4.9) | 152.3 (+7.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -2.3 (+5.7) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.4 (+4.6) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -3.2 (+4.8) | 151.2 (+8.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FSU 80 – 72 BC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BC 77 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FSU 63 – 62 BC |
| Feb 18, 2023 | BC 75 – 69 FSU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BC 71 – 55 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#82) | 6.7 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#91) | 1.22 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#91) | 1.63 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#90) | 0.549 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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