Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +160 NIA -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -3.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -2.6 (+1.6) | 137.2 (-10.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -2.4 (+1.4) | 134.4 (-7.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -2.5 (+1.5) | 138.3 (-11.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -2.8 (+1.8) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | NIA 65 – 56 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NIA 59 – 54 CAN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | NIA 71 – 60 CAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | CAN 69 – 59 NIA |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NIA 69 – 64 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-14 |
| Home | 1-12 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -15.8 (#357) | -9.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#351) | -1.73 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.24 (#349) | -2.37 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#335) | 0.409 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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