Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -200 CAN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -2.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -2.6 (+2.4) | 147.7 (-14.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -2.2 (+2.8) | 145.2 (-12.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -2.9 (+2.1) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -2.6 (+2.4) | 147.2 (-14.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | NIA 65 – 56 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NIA 59 – 54 CAN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | NIA 71 – 60 CAN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NIA 64 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | CAN 69 – 59 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#270) | -4.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#258) | -0.92 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#269) | -1.09 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#263) | 0.467 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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