Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +100 NIA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -2.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -0.8 (+9.2) | 141.4 (-13.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -1.0 (+9.0) | 142.7 (-14.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -0.6 (+9.4) | 143.7 (-15.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -0.3 (+9.7) | 143.2 (-15.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | NIA 65 – 56 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NIA 59 – 54 CAN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | NIA 71 – 60 CAN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NIA 64 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NIA 69 – 64 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#268) | -3.9 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#264) | -0.52 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#264) | -0.77 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#223) | 0.470 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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