Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | STO +175 CCSU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -4.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -4.0 (-4.0) | 131.3 (+2.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -4.0 (-4.0) | 132.2 (+1.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -3.1 (-4.9) | 130.5 (+3.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -2.8 (-5.2) | 129.8 (+4.2) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | STO 61 – 59 CCSU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CCSU 76 – 69 STO |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CCSU 67 – 41 STO |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CCSU 79 – 67 STO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CCSU 74 – 59 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 12-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#305) | -1.3 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#274) | 0.25 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#279) | 0.02 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#282) | 0.515 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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