Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | STO +105 CCSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -1.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -3.4 (+5.4) | 135.0 (-15.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -2.8 (+4.8) | 135.3 (-15.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -2.8 (+4.8) | 132.9 (-12.9) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -2.4 (+4.4) | 134.2 (-14.2) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | CCSU 76 – 69 STO |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CCSU 67 – 41 STO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CCSU 71 – 63 STO |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CCSU 79 – 67 STO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CCSU 74 – 59 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#330) | -7.0 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#352) | -0.86 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.55 (#352) | -1.62 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.378 (#350) | 0.464 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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