Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CCSU -450 STO +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +26 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -10.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -10.1 (+15.9) | 131.6 (-23.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -11.2 (+14.8) | 132.5 (-24.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -9.6 (+16.4) | 135.3 (-27.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -10.2 (+15.8) | 135.0 (-27.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | STO 61 – 59 CCSU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CCSU 76 – 69 STO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CCSU 71 – 63 STO |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CCSU 79 – 67 STO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CCSU 74 – 59 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 12-3 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#178) | -8.8 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#146) | -1.35 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#158) | -1.71 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#116) | 0.442 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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