Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | OAK -290 NKU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -8.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -6.2 (-15.2) | 129.4 (+29.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -7.2 (-16.2) | 132.0 (+27.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -6.2 (-15.2) | 129.5 (+29.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -6.8 (-15.8) | 128.4 (+30.6) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NKU 99 – 89 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#180) | -5.9 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#180) | -1.16 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#176) | -1.55 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#160) | 0.444 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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