Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -175 OAK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -4.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -1.8 (-16.8) | 133.4 (-12.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.2 (-17.2) | 134.2 (-13.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.1 (-17.1) | 132.4 (-11.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -2.5 (-17.5) | 133.1 (-12.1) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NKU 99 – 89 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#198) | -2.3 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#198) | -0.43 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#206) | -0.43 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#209) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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