Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -180 OAK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -2.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.2 (-8.2) | 158.8 (+0.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.5 (-7.5) | 156.9 (+2.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.8 (-7.8) | 161.0 (-2.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -2.4 (-7.4) | 161.5 (-2.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NKU 99 – 89 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#179) | 1.4 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#152) | 0.65 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#162) | 0.50 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.584 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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