Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | OAK -175 NKU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -6.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.0 (-30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -6.1 (+4.9) | 159.9 (-18.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -4.9 (+6.1) | 159.3 (-18.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -6.7 (+4.3) | 161.9 (-20.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -6.5 (+4.5) | 159.6 (-18.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NKU 99 – 89 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#126) | -0.9 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#97) | -0.22 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#120) | -0.34 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#65) | 0.483 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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