Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -111 OAK -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +10 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -1.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+41.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -0.9 (+10.9) | 145.2 (+42.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -0.2 (+9.8) | 144.5 (+43.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -0.8 (+10.8) | 147.5 (+40.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -1.1 (+11.1) | 146.3 (+41.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#201) | 2.3 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#231) | 0.79 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#225) | 0.66 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#215) | 0.558 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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