Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LR -155 UTM +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | LR -6.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -5.5 (+12.5) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -4.3 (+13.7) | 139.9 (-7.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -5.5 (+12.5) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -5.9 (+12.1) | 135.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LR 67 – 65 UTM |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UTM 55 – 52 LR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LR 82 – 77 UTM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LR 57 – 56 UTM |
| Feb 7, 2024 | LR 77 – 57 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#216) | -6.8 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#218) | -1.61 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#218) | -2.09 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#207) | 0.430 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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