Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LR +120 UTM -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -5.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -5.1 (+7.1) | 131.1 (+0.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -4.4 (+6.4) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -4.7 (+6.7) | 131.0 (+1.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -4.9 (+6.9) | 131.2 (+0.8) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UTM 55 – 52 LR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LR 82 – 77 UTM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LR 75 – 57 UTM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LR 57 – 56 UTM |
| Feb 7, 2024 | LR 77 – 57 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#308) | -1.8 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#308) | -0.03 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#308) | -0.27 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#295) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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