Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | LR -154 UTM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +20 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LR -1.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.4 (-36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -0.6 (+19.4) | 159.6 (-25.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -0.5 (+19.5) | 157.2 (-23.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -0.8 (+19.2) | 157.0 (-23.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -0.8 (+19.2) | 158.6 (-24.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LR 67 – 65 UTM |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UTM 55 – 52 LR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LR 82 – 77 UTM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LR 75 – 57 UTM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LR 57 – 56 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#267) | -3.0 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#282) | -0.19 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#267) | -0.40 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#319) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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