Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USC +165 MSU -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -5.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -3.8 (+9.8) | 146.6 (-12.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.4 (+10.4) | 148.5 (-14.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.5 (+9.5) | 148.6 (-14.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.7 (+8.7) | 149.0 (-15.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2026 | MSU 80 – 51 USC |
| Mar 17, 2023 | MSU 72 – 62 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#66) | 18.0 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#64) | 3.62 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#59) | 4.55 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#78) | 0.636 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.