Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -850 USC +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +29 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -9.2 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -9.5 (+19.5) | 152.3 (-21.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -9.3 (+19.7) | 150.6 (-19.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -7.8 (+21.2) | 149.4 (-18.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -8.6 (+20.4) | 152.1 (-21.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | USC 70 – 64 MSU |
| Mar 17, 2023 | MSU 72 – 62 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#18) | 12.0 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#11) | 3.30 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.71 (#11) | 3.88 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#8) | 0.650 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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