Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -138 USC +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -0.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.8 (+9.2) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -0.8 (+9.2) | 137.6 (-3.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -0.0 (+10.0) | 141.3 (-7.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -0.1 (+10.1) | 142.5 (-8.5) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2026 | MSU 80 – 51 USC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | USC 70 – 64 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#34) | 10.7 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#35) | 1.70 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#32) | 2.13 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#41) | 0.569 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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