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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–22 on winners spread MAE 10.6 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wagner @ Stonehill +6.4 119.2 72% 61–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst +0.2 141.6 51% 58–62 ✓
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson +8.8 158.7 79% 74–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University -3.5 124.3 38% 63–50 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -8.8 144.3 21% 62–83 ✗
Bryant @ UMBC -3.4 174.5 38% 92–86 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +12.2 150.7 87% 85–81 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Troy +14.2 143.7 90% 74–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +12.9 136.2 88% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +9.0 150.6 79% 53–106 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -2.5 131.0 41% 57–68 ✗
Green Bay @ Oakland +12.7 141.2 88% 54–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T -10.2 156.3 18% 83–59 ✓
William & Mary @ Campbell +1.3 155.3 55% 55–96 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth -2.2 130.5 42% 97–104 ✗
Hofstra @ Elon +5.6 126.8 69% 74–63 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton +0.5 137.3 52% 78–69 ✗
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +10.3 141.0 83% 67–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +6.7 141.3 73% 61–57 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +3.3 140.2 62% 72–64 ✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +17.4 133.1 94% 62–58 ✗
Louisiana @ Texas State +14.6 147.3 91% 70–61 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +15.5 147.2 92% 80–71 ✗
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +10.9 141.0 84% 77–86 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +8.1 152.0 77% 68–70 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +2.0 130.9 57% 54–61 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State +4.4 157.2 66% 72–62 ✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +4.2 146.3 65% 74–78 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -4.7 143.9 33% 76–68 ✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock +8.1 142.1 77% 72–70 ✗
Illinois @ Nebraska -7.4 153.5 25% 74–80 ✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +5.9 144.5 70% 79–90 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood -4.0 135.9 36% 63–65 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +1.5 130.6 55% 71–59 ✗
Memphis @ Tulane -7.5 150.7 25% 68–56 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +13.3 132.3 89% 58–70 ✓
Idaho @ Weber State +1.6 147.9 56% 82–74 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +1.2 147.2 54% 78–92 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State +6.6 141.2 73% 70–78 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.7 152.5 70% 68–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver -4.2 134.6 35% 68–69 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +4.0 165.9 64% 90–81 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Riverside +7.8 140.2 76% 58–60 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +1.8 147.8 56% 78–71 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -17.0 134.6 6% 80–75 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego -2.2 144.9 42% 98–90 ✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +13.9 145.2 90% 63–88 ✓
Washington State @ Pacific -11.0 154.2 16% 68–70 ✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +8.8 139.0 79% 60–83 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA +4.1 141.3 64% 52–78 ✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon +8.2 145.5 77% 74–83 ✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i -8.8 138.3 21% 74–63 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -4.9 150.8 33% 77–70 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +2.0 138.0 57% 70–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.