Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -185 PRST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +14 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -1.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -0.8 (+13.2) | 141.8 (+28.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -1.2 (+12.8) | 143.0 (+27.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.3 (+13.7) | 142.2 (+27.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.7 (+13.3) | 141.8 (+28.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MONT 75 – 72 PRST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MONT 74 – 68 PRST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | MONT 64 – 60 PRST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | PRST 79 – 76 MONT |
| Mar 12, 2024 | MONT 87 – 81 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#229) | -2.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#147) | -0.26 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#176) | -0.19 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#118) | 0.471 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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