Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -650 GASO +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -13.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.3 (-3.3) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -11.8 (-4.8) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.8 (-3.8) | 141.0 (+14.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.1 (-4.1) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
| Feb 6, 2021 | GASO 79 – 64 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#107) | -6.9 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#137) | -0.50 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#118) | -1.06 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#122) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.