Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +9 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | GASO -1.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -0.8 (-9.8) | 133.8 (-20.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -0.1 (-8.9) | 131.7 (-18.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -0.7 (-9.7) | 132.4 (-19.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -0.3 (-9.3) | 133.2 (-20.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 6, 2021 | GASO 79 – 64 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#218) | -0.6 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#177) | 0.63 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#201) | 0.86 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#189) | 0.516 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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