Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | GASO +170 TROY -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -6.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.5 (+0.5) | 161.2 (-0.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.6 (+0.6) | 164.1 (-3.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.2 (+0.2) | 165.2 (-4.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.1 (+0.1) | 161.0 (+0.0) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
| Feb 6, 2021 | GASO 79 – 64 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#254) | 3.5 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#215) | 1.02 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#239) | 0.76 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#235) | 0.569 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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