Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GASO +240 TROY -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +21 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -6.2 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -6.3 (-14.7) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.4 (-14.6) | 147.4 (-0.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -6.5 (-14.5) | 149.0 (-2.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -6.2 (-14.8) | 149.9 (-2.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
| Feb 6, 2021 | GASO 79 – 64 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#308) | 1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#315) | 0.04 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#299) | 0.33 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#319) | 0.515 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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