All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Trojan Arena · February 6, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread TROY -1.5 Away covered
O/U 127.5 Over
Money TROY +100 / GASO +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total TROY win
Actual GASO +15 143 Lost
Massey TROY -2.8 (-17.8)
Massey Totals 127.6 (+15.4)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 72%
Efficiency Plus ML TROY -2.8 (-17.8) 130.7 (+12.3) 57%
Baseline Tuned ML TROY -2.8 (-17.8) 130.5 (+12.5) 62%
Baseline ML TROY -3.3 (-18.3) 131.4 (+11.6) 61%
Baseline Plus ML TROY -2.7 (-17.7) 130.6 (+12.4) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 9, 2026 TROY 7761 GASO
Jan 24, 2026 TROY 8378 GASO
Jan 31, 2025 TROY 8174 GASO
Feb 2, 2024 TROY 8463 GASO
Feb 5, 2022 TROY 6152 GASO

Game Analysis

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