Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -150 SDST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -3.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.6 (-11.6) | 152.0 (-18.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -3.8 (-13.8) | 153.7 (-19.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -4.2 (-14.2) | 154.7 (-20.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -3.8 (-13.8) | 155.2 (-21.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NDSU 74 – 73 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#96) | 4.9 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#119) | 0.25 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#122) | 0.39 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#152) | 0.502 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.3% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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