Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -245 SDST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -6.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -7.0 (+4.0) | 151.1 (-10.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -6.9 (+4.1) | 148.5 (-7.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -5.9 (+5.1) | 150.1 (-9.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -6.8 (+4.2) | 149.7 (-8.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NDSU 74 – 73 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#133) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#135) | -0.71 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#125) | -0.62 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#155) | 0.465 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.