Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SDST +102 NDSU -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.5 (-7.5) | 147.2 (-7.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.0 (-7.0) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -1.0 (-7.0) | 146.5 (-6.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.9 (-7.1) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NDSU 74 – 73 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#183) | 2.8 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#264) | 0.61 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#237) | 0.67 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#268) | 0.535 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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