Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU +120 SDST -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -2.2 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.7 (-15.3) | 148.8 (-9.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -2.6 (-14.4) | 145.0 (-6.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.9 (-15.1) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.0 (-15.0) | 148.9 (-9.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NDSU 74 – 73 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#256) | 0.7 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#238) | -0.11 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#259) | -0.07 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#205) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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