Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -500 NDSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -9.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.1 (-8.1) | 150.1 (-3.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -7.5 (-8.5) | 152.9 (-5.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -7.7 (-8.7) | 154.1 (-7.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.0 (-9.0) | 152.8 (-5.8) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#156) | -5.2 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#181) | -0.89 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#180) | -1.23 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#185) | 0.455 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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