Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -275 NDSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +9 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -6.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -5.8 (-14.8) | 153.5 (-8.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -6.2 (-15.2) | 154.1 (-9.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -6.4 (-15.4) | 155.7 (-10.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -6.2 (-15.2) | 155.2 (-10.2) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NDSU 74 – 73 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#94) | 2.7 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#122) | 0.27 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#118) | 0.25 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#117) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 10.7% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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