Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +155 KC -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | KC -4.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -4.3 (+5.3) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -4.0 (+5.0) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -4.4 (+5.4) | 132.2 (+4.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -4.3 (+5.3) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
| Mar 1, 2024 | KC 84 – 69 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 4-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#329) | -3.6 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#330) | -1.27 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#345) | -1.32 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#339) | 0.435 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.1% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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