Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | KC +145 DEN -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -5.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-33.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -5.7 (-2.3) | 154.3 (-24.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.1 (-3.9) | 152.1 (-22.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.9 (-3.1) | 154.3 (-24.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -5.4 (-2.6) | 155.1 (-25.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
| Mar 1, 2024 | KC 84 – 69 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 8-8 |
| Home | 3-11 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L15 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 84.0 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#346) | -5.4 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.12 (#356) | -1.18 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#354) | -1.76 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#358) | 0.444 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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