Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -550 KC +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -11.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -11.1 (+1.9) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -8.2 (+4.8) | 147.4 (+13.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -9.1 (+3.9) | 152.3 (+8.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -9.6 (+3.4) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
| Mar 1, 2024 | KC 84 – 69 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 1-15 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-11 |
| Away | 6-11 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 84.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#216) | -11.0 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#170) | -3.79 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#213) | -5.17 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#140) | 0.365 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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