Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | KC -250 DEN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | KC -2.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-38.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -3.6 (-4.6) | 152.0 (-31.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -2.5 (-3.5) | 150.5 (-29.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -3.8 (-4.8) | 150.6 (-29.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -4.1 (-5.1) | 150.5 (-29.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 1, 2024 | KC 84 – 69 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#216) | -4.9 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#242) | -1.01 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#232) | -1.19 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#239) | 0.452 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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