Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | KC -340 DEN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | KC -8.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -5.3 (+2.7) | 137.3 (-17.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -6.7 (+1.3) | 136.2 (-16.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -5.7 (+2.3) | 135.5 (-15.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -5.3 (+2.7) | 136.2 (-16.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
| Mar 1, 2024 | KC 84 – 69 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#237) | -9.2 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#303) | -1.65 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#280) | -2.59 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#304) | 0.414 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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