Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -188 KC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +15 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -3.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -2.2 (-17.2) | 159.1 (-6.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -1.0 (-16.0) | 157.2 (-4.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -2.2 (-17.2) | 155.1 (-2.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -2.3 (-17.3) | 157.9 (-4.9) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#232) | -4.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#264) | -0.91 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#261) | -1.00 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#258) | 0.454 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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