Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -185 CP +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +9 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUB -4.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -3.2 (-12.2) | 156.3 (+14.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -5.2 (-14.2) | 155.3 (+15.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -3.0 (-12.0) | 157.4 (+13.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -3.0 (-12.0) | 158.6 (+12.4) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | CP 108 – 76 CSUB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | CP 104 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CP 98 – 72 CSUB |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUB 68 – 56 CP |
| Jan 21, 2024 | CSUB 65 – 53 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#220) | -4.5 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#210) | -0.79 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#205) | -1.12 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#214) | 0.460 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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