Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | CP -500 CSUB +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +32 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | CP -10.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -9.5 (+22.5) | 162.0 (+22.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -9.0 (+23.0) | 162.0 (+22.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -9.7 (+22.3) | 160.6 (+23.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CP -10.3 (+21.7) | 162.8 (+21.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | CP 104 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CP 98 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CP 90 – 81 CSUB |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUB 68 – 56 CP |
| Jan 21, 2024 | CSUB 65 – 53 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#236) | -11.6 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#222) | -1.88 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#218) | -2.54 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#232) | 0.394 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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