Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -150 CSUN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.0 (-7.0) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.1 (-8.1) | 144.8 (+4.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.4 (-7.4) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.8 (-7.8) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUN 85 – 83 UCSB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUN 74 – 65 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 72 CSUN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | CSUN 103 – 77 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CSUN 87 – 84 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#144) | 3.0 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#152) | 0.47 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#175) | 0.51 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#222) | 0.508 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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