Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CSUN -200 UCSB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +26 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -5.2 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+32.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -5.0 (+21.0) | 144.2 (+35.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -5.0 (+21.0) | 141.1 (+38.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -5.2 (+20.8) | 145.7 (+34.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -5.3 (+20.7) | 146.3 (+33.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUN 85 – 83 UCSB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUN 74 – 65 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 72 CSUN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CSUN 78 – 71 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CSUN 87 – 84 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#104) | 2.1 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#88) | 0.38 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#96) | 0.27 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.486 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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