Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -250 CSUN +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +2 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -5.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -3.8 (-5.8) | 158.6 (+9.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.5 (-7.5) | 154.1 (+13.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.0 (-6.0) | 154.4 (+13.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.0 (-6.0) | 157.1 (+10.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUN 74 – 65 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 72 CSUN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | CSUN 103 – 77 UCSB |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CSUN 78 – 71 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CSUN 87 – 84 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | -0.6 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#137) | 0.30 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#138) | 0.15 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#128) | 0.518 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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