Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -1000 IU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -13.2 (-8.2) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.9 (-6.9) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.9 (-7.9) | 146.5 (+10.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -12.3 (-7.3) | 146.7 (+10.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | PUR 87 – 66 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#14) | 9.7 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#11) | 1.87 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#12) | 2.37 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#4) | 0.585 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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