Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | IU +150 PUR -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -4.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.0 (+18.0) | 143.8 (-12.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.3 (+16.3) | 145.1 (-14.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.0 (+17.0) | 145.2 (-14.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.9 (+16.9) | 145.2 (-14.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | PUR 87 – 66 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#57) | 18.2 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#56) | 2.97 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#54) | 3.86 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#51) | 0.638 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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